Structured Response 1

               Professor Eva Bellin makes a compelling argument for the lack of democratization in the MENA region.  Her well-supported thesis makes the claim that not only are the countries in the MENA region in a position not suitable for democratization, they are in a prime position for autocratic rule.  First, she recounts the reasons that these nations are not suitable for democracy.  One factor is the lack of a civic society independent of the state.  There is an absence of strong commerce organizations, labor unions, and the like.  She writes, “civic culture… [is] the essential underpinning of a vibrant democracy,” (23).  From examples of powerful modern-day democracies, I believe that she is correct in stating that the civil society is not suitable for democracy.  Countries such as those in Western Europe and the United States are proof that a strong civil society is a powerful force behind democratization.  However, even Bellin makes a point later in the article that the lack of a sturdy civil society cannot alone stand in the way of democracy.  Examples in Sub-Saharan Africa, in which nearly half of the countries can be deemed democratic, are equally lacking in this area.  It is the factors that promote authoritarian rule in the MENA region that are the serious threat to democratization.  The most important of these factors I felt is the stance of the military in the region.  These countries have large amounts of money going towards military personnel, whom are comprised of a large percentage of the population.  Because the governments have accumulated wealth through natural resources and the rentier system, the military remains strong and is not prone to dissidence.

                With the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, the MENA region has certainly seen a shift from the static authoritarianism Bellin described in the article.   Civilian movements gained large amounts of popular support regardless of the lack of civil structure.  If she were to comment on some of these countries that have become more democratic, I believe she would argue that many of her arguments still can be upheld.  In the example of Egypt, Mubarak was ousted after the 18 Days of the revolution.  In his place, Mohamed Morsi was elected, clearly a step in the direction of democratization.  I believe Bellin would comment that the fall of Mubarak was caused by the military’s weighing of their options between quelling protests and giving in.  The Egyptian military, which has large influence on the politics in the nation, do not appear to be against their own people.  Instead, the military prosecutors against Mubarak have been anything but kind.  This avoids a situation such as that in Syria, where tensions have increased to the point where the military is fighting bands of militia in the streets.  And in this instance, where the military chose the opposite path, democratization has not yet occurred.